IEK releases future growth trends of PCBS worldwide
In 2008 and 2009, affected by the global recession, the global output value of PCB dropped (figure). In 2009, the output value fell by 15.61%, only 34.65 billion dollars. In 2010, the global economy began to recover, but the strength is not strong, industrial research Institute IEK estimated that the global PCB output rose to 37.71 billion dollars, up only 8.83 percent. Growth of more than 10% is forecast for 2011 and 2012, and it will take 2011 for global PCB output to reach the scale of 2008.
At present, the output value of the global PCB industry accounts for more than a quarter of the total output value of the electronic component industry, and it is the largest industry in each electronic component subdivision, with an output value of 40 billion US dollars. At the same time, because of its unique position in the electronic basic industry, is also the most active industry in the contemporary electronic components industry, printed circuit board in the entire output value of electronic components of the proportion of the trend of increasing, because with the adjustment of the product variety structure, printed circuit board in a single final product required area is gradually reduced, but due to the improvement of precision and complexity, In the overall cost of PCB value proportion has increased, is the main pillar of the development of electronic components industry. In the electronic component industry, the PCB industry is only as big as the semiconductor industry in terms of output size, and its importance is growing with the continuous expansion of PCB applications.
We selected the data of 3 listed companies as reference samples. Among them, ultrasonic Electronics, Founder Technology not only engaged in printed circuit boards, but also engaged in the production and sales of other products, in order to comparability, we focus on the comparison of their printed circuit board gross profit rate. From the situation of these companies, the average gross profit of PCB industry is about 20%.
Ii. Analysis of current situation of PCB industry in China
From a statistical point of view, the PCB industry is now very prosperous, but in fact it has encountered more difficulties. On the one hand, the industrial transfer of developed countries creates prosperity and raises the level. On the other hand, after reaching the peak of the stage, the problems brought by development become apparent, restricting the space for progress, and capital such as labor, hydropower and environment are no longer cheap.
Electronic products have entered the era of low profit, price war has changed the supply chain, and among Asian countries, China has both cost and market advantages.
The PCB industry is moving to China due to cost and downstream industries.
Analysis of the growth trend of China: the demand for downstream products promotes the development of the industry itself, and the industry is transferred from developed countries to China. However, the Chinese government, out of consideration of environmental protection, restricts low-end products below 4 layers and encourages high-end products such as HDI. These factors work together to promote the development of PCB to high-end products.
After the recession of 2000-2002, the world electronic circuit industry experienced a full recovery in 2003. The total output value of PCB in the world was 31.6 billion US dollars in 2002 and 34.5 billion US dollars in 2003, with a year-on-year growth of 9.18%, among which flexible plate and rigid flexible plate accounted for 15%. This trend was largely maintained in 2004, and industry analysts believe that the development of electronic circuits in the whole world, especially in Asia and China, has reached a new peak, and this peak will continue into 2010.
According to Prismark statistics and forecasts, the global output value of printed circuit board products will increase from approximately US $42 billion to approximately US $53.7 billion during 2006-2010, with an average compound annual growth rate of about 6.3%.
The most important driving force for the achievement of China's PCB industrial power is cost and application industry chain.
In terms of cost advantage, China has huge advantages in labor, land, hydropower, resources and policies. Although the main raw materials still need to be imported, the products replacing imports are gradually increasing.
The booming downstream industry in China, the global complete machine manufacturing transfer to China, provides a huge market demand space. It is the main supporting product of various electronic products, and the industrial chain involves all aspects of electronic products, whether it is consumer household appliances and industrial machines, such as computers, communication equipment, automobiles, and national defense industry are inseparable from PCB.
China, with its concentration of downstream industries and relatively low labor and land costs, is the region with the strongest development momentum. In 2003, China surpassed the United States for the first time and became the world's second largest PCB producer, with its output value nearly doubling from 8.54% in 2000 to 15.30%. In 2006, China overtook Japan as the world's largest PCB production base by value, far outpacing the growth rate of the global industry. From 2000 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of PCB market size in the mainland reached 20%, far exceeding that of other major producing countries. Looking into the future, with foreign investment expanding production, it is estimated that the mainland PCB market will grow by 17% in 2007, accounting for more than 25% of the global market.
(2) Analysis of China's PCB production capacity
Due to the consideration of comprehensive strategic layout, major PCB manufacturers of various countries have set up production capacity in China, and China has become the world's largest PCB supplier. In recent 1-2 years, due to cost pressure, PCB manufacturers in Europe and the United States have been shutting down factories and transferring orders to China, which directly promotes the continuous growth of PCB production capacity in China in recent years. A number of PCB manufacturers due to full orders, the production line has been fully full, under the pressure of orders, PCB factories began to actively expand production capacity, in recent years so many PCB factories at the same time to expand production, it is really rare, basically China absorbed the world's new capacity. In addition to large manufacturers expanding capacity, a number of small and medium-sized enterprises are also expanding capacity. The expansion of major manufacturers is shown in the chart below.
(3) Analysis of PCB product structure in China
The specifications of printed circuit boards are more complex, and there are many kinds of products. Generally, they can be classified according to the number of layers, softness and materials of PCB. According to the number of layers can be divided into: single panel, double panel and multi-layer board; According to the softness can be divided into rigid printed circuit board and flexible printed circuit board; By material, it can be divided into several categories as shown in the chart below.
According to the number of PCB layers and development direction, PCB industry is divided into six main product segments, such as single panel, double panel, conventional multilayer board, flexible board, HDI(high density interconnection) board and packaging substrate. From the product life cycle "introduction period - growth period - mature period - decline period" and other four cycle dimensions, single panel, double panel is not suitable for the current application trend of short electronic products, is in the decline period, the proportion of its output value gradually decreases, developed countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in the local production of such products, Many big factories have made it clear that they will no longer connect single and double panels.
Conventional multilayer board and HDI are mature products with increasingly mature process capacity and high added value. They are currently the main supply direction of most major PCB factories. Only a few Chinese manufacturers, such as ultrasonic electronics, have mastered the production technology. Flexible plate, especially high density flexible plate and rigid combined plate, due to the current technology is not mature, has not been able to achieve a large number of manufacturers mass production, belongs to the growth stage of the product, but because of its more suitable for digital products than rigid plate characteristics, flexible plate growth is very high, is the future development direction of each big factory.
IC used packaging substrate, whether R & D or manufacturing in the electronics industry developed countries such as Japan, South Korea relatively mature, but in the domestic technology is still in the stage of exploration, only Yifeielectric (Beijing) Co., LTD., ASE semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., LTD., Zhuhai Doumen super Yi Electronics Co., Ltd. and other few manufacturers in small batch production. This is because China's IC industry is still very underdeveloped, but with the multinational electronics giants continue to move IC research and development institutions to China, as well as the improvement of China's own IC research and development and production level, packaging substrate will have a huge market, is the development direction of a far-sighted factory.
In China, hard board (single panel, double panel, multilayer board, HDI board) accounts for 83.8%, in which multilayer board with a proportion of more than 50% accounts for the largest proportion, followed by soft board with a proportion of 15.6%. Due to oversupply pressure, most manufacturers entered a price war, output growth is lower than expected. HDI board in the dachang continued to expand the production capacity of the case, the output value of 2005 increased significantly up to 40%, the proportion of 13.6%, the previous mainstream single and double panel decreased year by year.
There are about 600 PCB manufacturers in China, including about 1,000 equipment and material manufacturers. The overall size of the enterprise is the advantage of the foreign-funded enterprises. In terms of investment scale, production technology, output value, the foreign-funded enterprises are stronger than the general state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises. China's printed circuit industry is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas, which is also related to the PCB industry's high demand for water. Water resources in these areas are relatively rich, and the Yangtze River Delta and Zhuhai Delta together account for 90% of the national total. At present, the ratio of Yangtze River Delta to Pearl River Delta is about 1:1.
Downstream demand drives development
The market space brought about by the production reduction or product structure adjustment of major producing countries such as the United States and Europe
International industrial transfer brings new technology and management
In recent years, the electronic information industry has developed rapidly, with the export increasing by 40-45%, but the PCB industry lags behind the growth rate of the overall electronic information industry. The output of multilayer board and HDI board lags far behind the market and needs to rely on imports a lot. The PCB industry still has a great space for development.
Each manufacturer should look for market segments and products with high gross profit, and transform to higher-level products, such as soft board, soft and hard combined board, thick copper board, photoelectric XY control board, source board of TFT panel, automotive board, memory board, memory module board, PCB board with more than 10 layers. There are more opportunities.
Global PCBS generated about $51 billion in 2010, up 25% from $40.6 billion in 2009, according to Prismark in February. The PCB industry is experiencing a rapid recovery. Since 2004, the global PCB industry has maintained steady development except during the financial crisis in 2009, with an annual compound growth rate of about 8%.
In contrast, the development of the domestic PCB market is more impressive. At present, our country has become the biggest PCB producer in the world. By 2010, the output value of Chinese PCB reached 18.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 36.2% of the global market, ranking first. This trend will be maintained with the further development of the domestic communication industry and the continuous boom of related downstream industries. According to Prismark, the PCB industry in China will maintain rapid growth in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% from 2010 to 2015.