The PCB industry is very good, but still need to calmly face the text directory.
With the increasing number of PCB companies loaded with orders, the Chinese PCB industry is extremely prosperous and is on the way forward. However, is the industry really ushered in the spring and is heading for recovery, or is it just a surface phenomenon under economic stimulus? Entrepreneurs should calmly think and respond cautiously when the impact of the economic crisis has not completely subsided and the world economy has not yet fully stabilized.
In the constant volatility of the US stock market, whether it is corporate profits or economic output, the world economy seems to be out of reach. The recovery of China’s economy has become a reality: According to statistics, China’s economic growth in the second quarter was 7.9%, while the third quarter achieved strong growth, reaching 8.9%. At the State Council executive meeting on October 21, Different from the cautiousness of the second quarter, it is believed that the economic and social development is better than expected at the beginning of the year, and the trend of recovery is consolidating.
China's PCB industry also ended its half-year boom, turning optimistic from the second quarter, and generally recovered to the same level last year in the third quarter, and the trend is even more obvious.
Analysis from all parties proves that this year's application of new products and new market support, the PCB market successfully achieved recovery and growth. On the hard board side, NB Factory supports Intel to push CULV platform, Smart Phone still maintains growth, and China's home appliances to the countryside policy to open the LCD TV market and domestic demand for mobile phones. CULV NB allows NB to adopt a slight increase in the proportion of HDI boards, which will help to improve the capacity utilization rate of board manufacturers with HDI technology capabilities, including China's Lenovo, Taiwan's Acer, Asus, MSI, HP, and Dell. The products were launched in the second and third quarters.
After a wave of bankruptcy, the soft board market suffered little impact in this crisis. When the complete soft board industry chain has not yet formed in China, the soft board market in Taiwan has become a weather vane. Statistics show that it benefits from Apple. HTC and RIM plan to launch new products; Palm will return to the Smart Phone market, and NB will adopt positive LED backlighting. In the second quarter, the soft board will grow by 19.8%. Recently, the real-time communication released by Japan EPTE also predicts that Asian PCB The development of Japan will welcome a good development.
Despite this, the PCB industry should still take a cool look at the current forecasts and analysis of the economy. Not to mention whether the amazing Chinese economic data can withstand the scrutiny, China's ability to independently promote global economic development is doubtful. After all, China's economy depends on manufacturing, while manufacturing depends on US consumer demand. The United States has been the undisputed locomotive of the global economy. At the just-concluded Davos forum, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia used figures to show that there is no other consumer in the world that can replace American consumers with annual consumption of $10 trillion, and the most powerful supply. China's own consumption capacity is only 1/4 of that of the United States.
Although there are numerous facts that can be proved that the world economic downturn is expected to improve in 2010, due to the severe impact of the global real economy, the restored economy will take some time to adjust. In China, most of the 7.1% GDP growth in the first half of this year was achieved by fixed asset investment, and bank credits were as high as 7 trillion yuan in history. New supply and demand imbalances may have formed. As Premier Wen Jiabao said: "The amount of growth is still the value of growth. This is a problem that China needs to solve."
Moreover, the current development of China's economy and PCB industry is largely supported by the support and promotion of the country's 4 trillion policy, but its follow-up strength is limited. At present, domestic personal consumer confidence has remained at a relatively low level, and the employment gap of 12 million also highlights the lack of success in consumption. The stimulus of the policy side is often lagging behind in stimulating consumption, far from the rapid pull of the market, which also needs to be adjusted after a long period of time.
Similarly, some industry players said that in the national economic stimulus policy, the construction of base stations for 3G is mostly driven by the state, and it has indeed stimulated the growth of the industry. Companies such as ultrasound electronics and Shennan Circuit are also subject to this policy. Benefits are shallow. However, the PCB board for 3G mobile phones also has the problem of lack of success. The 3G replacement wave that the industry had expected earlier was not as expected. It was far less crazy than the black-and-white screen mobile phone for color-changing mobile phones, and consumers are not too good for 3G. Cold, it is generally believed that the current mobile phone function is already comprehensive, and the distrust of the stability of electronic products' new things makes it mostly in a wait-and-see state. More news is revealed. At present, Huawei is already developing 4G mobile phones. If it is successful, then 3G mobile phones are likely to exist only as a transitional term. Where do the operators dare to rely on them to stimulate the development of the industry?
In the LED field, which is highly anticipated, LED TV, LED lighting, etc. can bring growth opportunities to the PCB industry, and it is increasingly accepted by the market and consumers in terms of energy saving and diversified functions, but China LED development is not as smooth as imagined. For LED products that are still “luxury” in the short term, there are still many difficulties in the promotion of large-scale projects, such as lack of core technology, high prices, lack of technical standards, etc. , all hinder the speed and breadth of its promotion. Furthermore, photovoltaic panels, soft and hard bonded boards, and soft boards that are compatible with LED products are weak links in China's PCB industry, with fewer manufacturers and production, and limited benefits.
The new product CULV processor appeared in the second quarter of this year, although it has a certain contribution to the carrier board demand, but the price drop of the CULV processor is too large, which inevitably affects the shipping price of the carrier board manufacturer, and the product is still in the The market temperature stage is tested, so the recovery is limited.
On the whole, the domestic PCB companies have once again made this move, mainly benefiting from the multi-party pull of domestic policies. At present, in order to reduce the risk of inflation caused by strong economic stimulus, the government's “exit strategy” has become the consensus of governments, but the timing and scale of exit are different. Therefore, for PCB companies that are heavily dependent on domestic policies, they should be more cautious in dealing with economic trends and should not be blindly optimistic.
The world economy is still in the doldrums is another important reason why companies need to calmly face current growth. Global GDP still faces a difficult situation. In particular, the GDP trend in the Eurozone has increased after the correction. Although the world has a good expectation of China's GDP as a member of the BRIC countries, the overall GDP growth of the BRIC countries is still frustrating. Moreover, although China is currently driving the status of the world economy, its The economy is much smaller than the United States, and the engine is small. Not only will the world economy move at a slower pace, but the Chinese economy will also be at risk of being dragged down by the world economy.
Regardless of the future direction of China and the world economy, under the situation that the global electronic information industry is in deep recession, it is undoubted that Chinese PCB companies are welcoming a new round of development opportunities. After a year of adjustment and development, the most difficult period in China has already been spent. As a PCB company, instead of spending a lot of energy to discuss and predict the future economic environment, it is better to calm down and practice hard and physical strength. Fitness, although it is a cliché, it is the fundamental way to deal with all difficulties.
The overall trend of the PCB industry is that the stronger the stronger, the bigger the Evergrande. Through the baptism of the crisis, domestic and foreign PCB companies will be more competitive, and this advantage will be more obvious in the process of economic recovery. At this time, if the domestic circuit board enterprises only rely on the help and support of the national policy, rather than paying attention to the improvement and optimization of their own strength, once the economy is fully recovered and the market returns to normal, PCB enterprises will face greater development pressure, and many SMEs that survived the crisis will eventually be unable to escape the fate that has disappeared because they cannot adapt to the market environment.
Shennan Circuit is also called by the general manager of Radium in the article. PCB companies should take advantage of the current opportunity to actively explore the market with cost advantages. After the electronic products entered the era of meager profit, the global PCB production base gradually shifted from Europe, America and Japan to the Asia-Pacific region, which is dominated by China, Taiwan and South Korea. The financial crisis that broke out in 2008 accelerated this trend. The cost advantage of domestic enterprises has always been outstanding. If we can accurately seize the opportunity of foreign transfer, it will greatly help the PCB companies to expand market share.
Generally speaking, short-term policies aimed at bail-outs often require another round of policies that actually solve practical problems to rescue. In view of the lost 20-year lessons of Japan’s failure due to inadequate policies in the 1990 credit crisis, I believe that the country It will also continue to consider how to move from a helpful policy to a problem-solving policy. Therefore, PCB companies should continue to pay attention to the direction of policy and industry development. In the follow-up development, we will pay more attention to the trends of semiconductor, consumer electronics, NB and optoelectronic products, and prepare for the new round of development.
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