PCB Industry Analysis Report
First, the concept of PCB board
PCB is an abbreviation for printed circuit board. Generally, a conductive pattern which is formed on a dielectric material according to a predetermined design to form a printed circuit, a printed component or a combination of the two is called a printed circuit. Conductive patterns that provide electrical connections between components on an insulative substrate are referred to as printed circuits. Thus, the finished board of printed circuit or printed circuit is called printed circuit board, also known as printed board or printed circuit board.
Second, PCB industry chain and competitiveness analysis
(1) Analysis of PCB industry chain
The PCB board is a board for assembling electronic parts, and is a printed board on which a point-to-point connection and a printed component are formed on a general-purpose substrate in a predetermined design. The main function is to make various electronic components form the connection of the predetermined circuit, play the role of relay transmission, and is the key electronic interconnection of electronic products. The manufacturing quality of PCBs not only directly affects the reliability of electronic products, but also affects the overall competitiveness of system products. Therefore, PCB boards are called "mother of electronic system products". The development level of the PCB industry can reflect the development speed and technical level of the electronics industry in a country or region to a certain extent.
Glass fiber yarn: The glass fiber yarn is calcined into a liquid state by a raw material such as silica sand, and is drawn into a very fine glass fiber through a very fine alloy nozzle, and then several hundred glass fibers are twisted into a glass fiber yarn. The investment in kiln construction is huge. It is a capital-intensive industry. The 30,000-ton kiln needs 400 million RMB. It takes 18 months to build a new kiln. The boom cycle is difficult to master, and once it has been ignited, it must be produced 24 hours a day. Around the year, it is necessary to stop production for half a year, and the cost of entry and exit is huge.
Fiberglass cloth: Fiberglass cloth is one of the raw materials for copper clad laminates. It is made of fiberglass yarn, accounting for about 40% (thick plate) and 25% (thin plate) of copper clad laminate cost. The manufacture of fiberglass cloth is similar to that of weaving companies. It can control the production capacity and quality by controlling the speed, and the specifications are relatively simple and stable. Unlike CCL, the price of fiberglass cloth is most affected by the relationship between supply and demand. In recent years, the price fluctuated between 0.50 and 1.00 USD/m. At present, the production capacity of Taiwan and the mainland of China accounts for about 70% of the world. The relationship between upstream and downstream is the key to operation. The price of a looms is 10-15 million, generally more than 100 can be produced normally, but the subsequent heat treatment and chemical processing equipment have higher capital requirements, reaching tens of millions of grades. The capacity of the cloth is easy to expand and flexible. For example, Shanghai Honghe Electronics under the Taiwan Hongren Group, the looms used by the company are all Toyota of Japan, with a large number, a few woven fabrics, high productivity, good performance and good product quality.
Copper foil: Copper foil is the largest proportion of the cost of CCL, accounting for about 30% (thick plate) and 50% (thin plate) of CCL cost. Therefore, the price increase of copper foil is the main driving force for CCL price increase. . Copper foil is widely used, not only in the CCL industry. When the CCL industry is in a downturn, copper foil manufacturers can switch to copper foil for other purposes. The price of copper foil is closely reflected in the price change of copper. As the price of copper rises, copper foil manufacturers shift the cost pressure downstream. The high-tech barriers in the copper foil industry have led to insufficient domestic supply. High-grade copper foil still needs a large amount of imports, and the cost of investing in factories is also high.
CCL (CCL): It is an electronic grade glass fiber cloth as a substrate, impregnated with epoxy resin, and dried to form a semi-cured adhesive sheet, which is then single-sided, double-sided or multi-layered. The board is coated with a thin copper foil, which is made by special hot pressing process and is the direct raw material of the PCB. The demand for funds in the CCL industry is large, and the small-scale factory is about 50 million yuan. The CCL industry is a cost-driven cyclical industry. In the upstream and downstream industry chain structure, CCL has a strong bargaining power for PCBs. As long as the downstream demand is still acceptable, the pressure of rising costs can be passed on to downstream PCB manufacturers, but only the scale is large. CCL can have a strong voice in the procurement of raw materials such as fiberglass cloth and copper foil. Since the product of the CCL is single, it can only be sold to the PCB factory. When the PCB is in a downturn, it can only be used to ensure the utilization of the production capacity.
PCB: Compared with the upstream and downstream industries, the characteristics of the PCB industry determine that its industrial concentration is not high; in the fierce market competition environment, only those enterprises with good market positioning and high operational efficiency have long-term competitiveness, and an ordinary PCB production line needs More than 20 million yuan, multi-layer board needs to invest 50 million, HDI needs to invest more than 200 million people. Due to the huge industry, the division of labor is very fine, there is a single-station process outsourcing specializing in drilling, and the supply of low-end products is oversupplied. The high-end PCB industry such as HDI is a capital- and labor-intensive industry. It has high requirements for management and technology, and often becomes a bottleneck for capacity expansion.
(II) Analysis of PCB industry competitiveness
At present, the output value of the global PCB industry accounts for more than a quarter of the total output value of the electronic component industry, and it is the industry with the largest proportion of each electronic component segmentation industry. At the same time, due to its unique position in the electronic basic industry, it is also the most active industry in the contemporary electronic component industry. The proportion of PCB boards in the output value of electronic components is increasing, because it is printed with the adjustment of the product variety structure. Although the required area of the circuit board in a single final product is gradually reduced, due to the improvement of precision and complexity, the proportion of PCB value in the whole machine cost has increased, which is the main pillar of the development of the electronic component industry. In the electronic component industry, the scale of the PCB industry is only in the semiconductor industry, and its importance is further enhanced as the field of PCB applications continues to expand. The average gross profit of the PCB industry is around 20%.
The competition among the industry is fierce: the enterprises in the industry are divided into three levels: high, medium and low. The middle and high-end enterprises are foreign-funded, Hong Kong-funded, Taiwan-funded and a few state-owned enterprises. Domestic enterprises are in financial and technical disadvantages.
PCB boards are widely used in a large number of electronic products, and there is no mature technology and product that can replace printed circuit boards. The basic manufacturing process of PCB "reduction method" has not changed significantly in recent decades; that is, the screen is printed by metal etching to obtain PCB, which is the origin of the name of printed circuit board. Because this production process is not environmentally friendly, there are many waste water and waste gas generated. At present, many organizations have begun to develop other processes that are fundamentally different from traditional circuit board manufacturing methods, such as inkjet circuit boards and lithographic circuit boards.
Epson invented the "inkjet technology" PCB, which uses liquid metal instead of ink to eject it from the printhead, and sprays the necessary materials to the necessary locations to form a metal film. Using the "liquid film forming technology", it is possible to draw the circuit pattern on the chip as if it were printed on a printer. Compared with the traditional "photographing technology", the inkboard-based circuit board production process has many advantages; since the circuit is formed only where needed, it can save a lot of raw materials; because the whole process is a dry processing process, so Waste liquids are produced, and the reduction in production steps results in lower energy consumption; and the process is well suited to high mixing, small batch production, and multi-layer construction.
3. Potential entrants
The rise of Southeast Asia: Since the cost of labor and environment is lower than that of China, it has attracted a lot of foreign investment there; especially India, there is a large PCB demand in its own market, and low-end products such as single and double-sided PCB entry costs Low, low investment, hand workshops can survive at low cost.
4, the power of the supplier
CCL, copper foil, prepreg, chemical syrup, anode copper/tin/nickel, dry film, ink and other products are the main raw materials needed for PCB production. The ratio of raw material costs to cost was 66%. In recent years, due to the sharp increase in the price of petroleum and non-ferrous metals, the cost of raw materials has increased significantly. CCL accounts for about 40% of the total PCB production cost, which has the greatest impact on the cost of PCBs. Large-scale PCB companies will sign long-term contracts at CCL plants. Reduce the impact of fluctuations in raw material prices.
Third, the analysis of the status quo of the domestic PCB industry
From a statistical point of view, the PCB industry is currently very prosperous, but in reality it encounters more difficulties. On the one hand, the transfer of industries in developed countries has created prosperity and improved levels. On the other hand, after the culmination of the stage, the problems brought about by development have emerged, and the space, labor, hydropower, and environment that restrict the advancement are no longer cheap. Due to the impact of cost and downstream industry transfer, the PCB industry is gradually shifting to the central and western regions.
(I) Analysis of China's growth trend
The demand for downstream products drives the development of the industry itself, and the industry shifts from developed countries to China. However, China restricts low-end products below 4 layers for environmental protection considerations, and encourages high-end products such as HDI. These factors work together to promote PCB to high-end. Product development. In 2010, China's PCB output value exceeded $18.5 billion, an annual increase of 30%. The overall development of the PCB industry is relatively fast, and the rapid development of electronic terminals such as tablets and smartphones has driven the development of PCBs. According to the 2010 Q4 report, the global PCB production value in 2010 was 51 billion US dollars, an increase of 24% compared with 2009. At present, the PCB industry has basically recovered to the highest level of industry historical output in 2008. As a global PCB manufacturing center, China's PCB industry is still the main growth driver for the development of the global PCB industry.
(II) Analysis of PCB production capacity in China
Due to the comprehensive strategic layout considerations, major PCB manufacturers in various countries have established capacity in China, and China has become the world's largest PCB supplier. In the last 1-2 years, the PCB industry in Europe and the United States has been shutting down the factory due to the cost pressure, and the order has been transferred to China, which directly promotes the continuous growth of China's PCB production capacity in recent years.
(III) Analysis of China PCB Product Structure
The specifications of PCB boards are complex and there are many types of products. Generally, it can be classified according to the number of layers of PCB, softness and materials. It can be divided into single panel, double panel and multi-layer board according to the number of layers; it can be divided into rigid printed circuit board and flexible printed circuit board according to softness.
From the number of layers and development direction of the PCB: the PCB industry is divided into six major sub-products: single-panel, double-panel, conventional multi-layer board, flexible board, HDI (high-density interconnect) board, and package board. From the four cycle dimensions of the product life cycle "introduction period - growth period - maturity period - recession period", the single-panel and double-panel applications are in a recession due to the unsuitable application trend of short and light electronic products. Gradually, developed countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have rarely produced such products in the local area, and many large manufacturers have clearly stated that they will no longer accept single and double panels.
Conventional multi-layer boards and HDI are mature products, with increasingly mature process capabilities and high added value. At present, most of the major PCB factories are fully committed to the main supply direction. Among the domestic manufacturers, only a few of them have mastered the production technology. Flexible boards, especially high-density flexible boards and rigid-bonded boards, are not mature enough to achieve mass production by mass-producers. They are long-term products, but they are more suitable for digital products than rigid boards. Characteristics, the high growth of flexible boards is the future development direction of each major factory.
The package substrate used by IC, whether it is R&D or manufacturing, is relatively mature in developed countries such as Japan and South Korea, but it is still in the stage of technology exploration in China. Only Feifei (Beijing) Co., Ltd., Riyueguang Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Doumen Chaoyi Electronics Co., Ltd. is one of the few manufacturers in small batch production.
Domestic hard boards (single panel, double panel, multi-layer board, HDI board) accounted for 83.8%, of which more than 50% of the multi-layer board accounted for the largest proportion, followed by the soft board with a proportion of 15.6%.
There are currently more than 1,300 PCB manufacturers in China, plus equipment and materials manufacturers. The overall scale of the enterprise is that the three-capital enterprises are dominant. Whether it is investment scale, production technology, and output value, the three-capital enterprises are stronger than the general state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises. The domestic printed circuit industry is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas, which is also related to the large demand for water in the PCB industry. The water resources in these areas are relatively abundant, and the Yangtze River Delta and the Zhuhai Delta add up to 90% of the national total. The ratio of the Yangtze River Delta to the Pearl River Delta is about 1:1.
The products for communication are 70% of the mainstream application fields of domestic PCBs. Among them, the market demand for upgrading major major factories continues to increase the number of products, 19.3% of mobile phone boards are in the first place, and the market of small-scale photovoltaic panels is mostly from Japan and Taiwan. Leading, among which the focus of Taiwanese businessmen is hard, and Japanese businessmen mainly supply soft boards.
High-density multilayer and flexible PCB have become the highlights in the development of the circuit board industry. In order to comply with the trend of multi-functionality, miniaturization and light weight of electronic products, the requirements for PCBs in next-generation electronic systems are high density, high integration, encapsulation, miniaturization and multi-layering.
PCB types such as HDI boards, flexible boards, and IC package boards (BGA, CSP) will become major growth points. The whole market presents two characteristics: First, with the popularity of digital products, the annual growth rate of flexible boards has reached more than 50%, which has become the focus of the market. Second, with the development of the automotive industry, automotive electronics will further drive HDI flexible boards. The development of substrates.
Fourth, the situation of CCL market
Copper foil substrate (CopperCladLaminate; CCL) is the main material of printed circuit board. Depending on the number of layers, it accounts for 50%~70% of the cost of PCB raw materials. The manufacturing system will be reinforcing materials (glass fiber cloth, insulating paper, etc.). An impregnated resin (epoxy resin, phenolic resin, polyimide resin, etc.) is added, and after the piece is cut, a copper foil is attached to one side or both sides, and subjected to hot press forming to form a copper foil substrate. The copper foil substrate is divided into substrates having various characteristics depending on different materials, and mainly includes a paper substrate, a composite substrate, and a glass fiber epoxy substrate. The paper substrate is inferior in strength and is a low-order product. It is generally used in household appliances such as televisions and stereos. The inner film of the composite substrate is impregnated with epoxy resin by insulating paper or glass mat, and is also used in household appliances.
The glass fiber epoxy substrate is impregnated and pressed by epoxy resin, glass fiber cloth and copper foil. Including G-10, FR-4, FR-5 and other several types, of which FR-4 is the largest producer and demander in the copper foil substrate industry, FR-4 substrate is commonly used in computer components and peripheral equipment. For example, printed circuit boards used in motherboards, hard drives, etc. are manufactured from FR-4 substrates.
Take ordinary TG4mil core board (thin board) as an example: raw materials account for 80%, hydropower and others, labor, depreciation are 8%, 8%, 4%, respectively; subdivided raw materials, copper foil accounts for 63% of production cost, glass cloth It accounts for 10% of production cost and 7% of production cost of resin. It can be seen that the price increase of raw materials, especially the price increase of copper, has a great impact on copper clad laminates.
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