IEK releases global PCB future growth trend
In 2008 and 2009, due to the global recession, the global PCB output value fell (Figure), which fell by 15.61% in 2009, with an output value of only US$34.65 billion. In 2010, the global economy began to recover, but the strength was not strong. ITRI estimated that the global PCB output value rose to 37.71 billion US dollars, up only 8.83%. It is predicted that there will be more than 10% growth in 2011 and 2012, and the global PCB output value in 2011 will be able to reach the scale of 2008.
At present, the global PCB industry output value accounts for more than a quarter of the total output value of the electronic components industry, and is the largest proportion of the various electronic component industry, with an output value of 40 billion US dollars. At the same time, due to its unique position in the electronic basic industry, it is also the most active industry in the contemporary electronic components industry. The proportion of printed circuit boards in the output value of electronic components is increasing, because with the adjustment of the product variety structure of the whole machine, Although the required area of the printed circuit board in a single final product is gradually reduced, but due to the improvement of precision and complexity, the proportion of PCB value in the whole machine cost has increased, which is the main pillar of the development of the electronic component industry. . In the electronic component industry, the scale of PCB industry production is only in the semiconductor industry. With the continuous expansion of PCB application fields, its importance is further enhanced.
We selected data from three listed companies as reference samples. Among them, Ultrasonic Electronics and Founder Technology are not only engaged in printed circuit boards, but also in the production and sales of other products. For comparison, we focus on comparing the gross profit margin of printed circuit boards. From the rough situation of these companies, the average gross profit of the PCB industry is about 20%.
1. Analysis of the status quo of China's PCB industry
From a statistical point of view, the PCB industry is currently very prosperous, but in reality it encounters more difficulties. On the one hand, the transfer of industries in developed countries has created prosperity and improved levels. On the other hand, after reaching the peak of the stage, the problems brought about by development have emerged, and the space for progress has been restricted. Capitals such as labor, hydropower and environment are no longer cheap.
Electronic products entered the era of low profits, and price wars changed the supply chain. Among Asian countries, China has both cost and market advantages.
The PCB industry is gradually shifting to China due to the impact of cost and downstream industry transfer.
Analysis of China's growth trend: The demand for downstream products drives the development of the industry itself, and the industry shifts from developed countries to China. However, the Chinese government restricts low-end products below 4 layers and encourages high-end products such as HDI for environmental protection considerations. These factors work together to promote the development of PCBs to high-end products.
After the 2000-2002 recession in the world electronic circuit industry, there was a comprehensive recovery in 2003. The total PCB production value in the world in 2002 was 31.6 billion US dollars, and in 2003 it was 34.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.18% year-on-year, of which flexible panels and rigid-flexible panels accounted for 15%. In 2004, this trend was basically maintained. Industry analysts believe that the development of electronic circuits in the world, especially in Asia and China, has reached a new peak, and this peak will continue until 2010.
According to Prismark statistics and forecasts, the global value of printed circuit board products will increase from approximately $42 billion to approximately $53.7 billion in 2006-2010, with an average compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.3%.
Industrial transfer has made China's PCB industry a big country, the most important driving force comes from both the cost and application industry chain.
In terms of cost advantages, China has great advantages in terms of labor, land, hydropower, resources and policies. Although the main raw materials still need to be imported, the products that replace imports are gradually increasing.
The downstream industry is booming in China, and global machine manufacturing is shifting to China, providing a huge market demand space. It is the main accessory product of various electronic products. The industrial chain involves all aspects of electronic products. No matter whether it is consumer home appliances and industrial machines, such as computers, communication equipment, automobiles, and defense industry, it is inseparable from PCB.
Due to the concentration of downstream industries and relatively low labor land costs, China has become the region with the strongest development momentum. China surpassed the United States for the first time in 2003 and became the world's second largest PCB producer. The proportion of output value also increased from 8.54% in 2000 to 15.30%, nearly doubled. In 2006, China has replaced Japan as the world's largest PCB production base, far higher than the growth rate of the global industry. The annual growth rate of the mainland PCB market in 2000-2006 averaged 20%, far exceeding that of other major producing countries. Looking forward to the future, under the expansion of foreign capital competition, it is estimated that the mainland PCB market will grow by 17% in 2007, and the global market share will exceed 25%.
2. Analysis of PCB production capacity in China
Due to the comprehensive strategic layout considerations, major PCB manufacturers in various countries have established capacity in China, and China has become the world's largest PCB supplier. In the past 1-2 years, the PCB industry in Europe and the United States has been steadily closing the factory and transferring orders to China due to cost pressures. This has directly contributed to the continuous growth of China's PCB production capacity in recent years. Due to the full order of many PCB manufacturers, the production line has been fully loaded. Due to the pressure of orders, various PCB factories have begun to actively expand production capacity. In recent years, many PCB factories have expanded their production in the same way. It is indeed rare. Basically, China has absorbed new global products. Increased production capacity. In addition to large manufacturers to expand production capacity, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are also expanding production capacity. The expansion of major manufacturers is shown in the chart below.
3. Analysis of China PCB product structure
Printed circuit boards are more complex in size and have a wide variety of products. They can be classified according to the number of layers, softness and materials of the PCB. According to the number of layers can be divided into: single-panel, double-panel and multi-layer boards; according to the softness can be divided into rigid printed circuit boards and flexible printed circuit boards; by material can be divided into several categories as shown in the chart below.
From the number of layers and development direction of the PCB, the PCB industry is divided into six main sub-products: single-panel, double-panel, conventional multi-layer board, flexible board, HDI (high-density interconnect) board, and package substrate. From the four cycle dimensions of the product life cycle "introduction period - growth period - maturity period - recession period", single panel and double panel are in a recession period due to their unsuitable application trend of short and light electronic products. The proportion has gradually decreased. Developed countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have rarely produced such products at home. Many large manufacturers have clearly stated that they will no longer accept single and double panels.
Conventional multi-layer boards and HDI are mature products, the process capability is becoming more and more mature, and the added value of products is high. It is the direction of most major PCB factories. At present, only a few of the Chinese manufacturers have mastered the production technology; Sex boards, especially high-density flexible boards and rigid-bonded boards, are not mature in massion and cannot be mass-produced by a large number of manufacturers. They are long-term products, but they are more suitable for digital products than rigid boards. Characteristics, the growth of flexible boards is very high, and it is the future development direction of each major factory.
The package substrate used by IC, whether it is R&D or manufacturing, is relatively mature in developed countries such as Japan and South Korea, but it is still in the stage of technology exploration in China. Only Feifei (Beijing) Co., Ltd., Riyueguang Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Doumen Chaoyi Electronics Co., Ltd. is one of the few manufacturers in small batch production. This is because China's IC industry is still very underdeveloped, but as multinational electronics giants continue to move IC R&D institutions to China, as well as China's own IC R&D and production levels, packaged substrates will have a huge market and are far-sighted. The development direction of the factory.
China's hard board (single-panel, double-panel, multi-layer board, HDI board) accounted for 83.8%, of which the multi-layer board with the proportion of 50% accounted for the largest proportion, followed by the soft board with the proportion of 15.6%. Due to the pressure of oversupply, most manufacturers entered the price war and the output value grew below expectations. In the case of the continuous expansion of production capacity of the HDI board, the output value in 2005 has grown by as much as 40%, with a proportion of 13.6%. The previous mainstream single and double panels have been declining year by year.
There are about 600 PCB manufacturing companies in China, plus about 1,000 equipment and materials manufacturers. The overall scale of the enterprise is that the three-capital enterprises are dominant. Whether it is investment scale, production technology, and output value, the three-capital enterprises are stronger than the general state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises. China's printed circuit industry is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas, which is also related to the large demand for water in the PCB industry. The water resources in these areas are relatively abundant, and the Yangtze River Delta and the Zhuhai Delta add up to 90% of the national total. At present, the ratio of the Yangtze River Delta to the Pearl River Delta is about 1:1.
Downstream demand brings development momentum
Market space brought about by production reduction or product structure adjustment in major producing countries such as the United States and Europe
International industry transfer brings new technology and management
In recent years, the electronic information industry has developed at a high speed, and exports have increased by 40-45%. The PCB industry has lagged behind the growth of the overall electronic information industry. The output of multi-layer boards and HDI boards lags far behind the market and requires a large amount of dependence on imports. The PCB industry still has a lot of room for development.
All manufacturers should look for high-margin market segments and products, and transform them into high-end products, such as soft board, soft and hard board, thick copper board, photoelectric XY control board, TFT panel source board, auto board, memory board, and memory. Module boards, 10 or more PCB boards, have more opportunities.
According to Prismark's February data, global PCB production in 2010 was about $51 billion, a 25% increase from 2009's $40.6 billion. The PCB industry boom is experiencing a rapid recovery phase. Since 2004, the global PCB industry has continued to develop steadily except for the 2009 financial crisis, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8%.
In contrast, the development of the domestic PCB market is even more impressive. At present, China has become the world's largest PCB producer. By 2010, China's PCB output value reached 18.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 36.2% of the global market, ranking first. This trend will continue to grow with the further development of the domestic communications industry and the continued prosperity of the relevant downstream industries. According to Prismark, China's PCB industry will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% from 2010 to 2015.